WHAT MOVES HEALTH INSURANCE IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA? AN ARDL HEALTH INSURANCE PREMIUMS STUDY

This study examines how macroeconomic conditions and demographic change shape the highfrequency dynamics of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s health insurance market. The focus is on quarterly premium flows for health lines. The empirical design combines quarterly health insurance premium flows, along with macroeconomic and demographic factors, which, according to the literature, shape insurance and its premium flows. Annual variables are disaggregated to quarterly frequency using the Chow-Lin disaggregation method; DentonCholette is used as a robustness alternative, where no adequate driver is found. After stationarity diagnostics, and dimensionality reduction through principal component analysis, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach to cointegration with an associated error-correction form is employed, to quantify the long- and short-run links between premiums/claims and macro-demographic drivers. Data on quarterly premiums are compiled from national insurance market reports, while other variables are taken from aggregated data banks, comprising datasets created by the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Health Organization. The observed data range is from 2011 to 2023. The study is implemented at the national level with a goal of providing a compact, data-driven assessment of how growth, inflation, and population factors move together with health insurance flows in Bosnia and Herzegovina.